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The Brothers Krynn's avatar

The Mule should have won

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Hari Seldon's avatar

As you can tell by my username, I too was heavily influenced by Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy. But my reading of it was different than yours - in part because I choose to ignore the existence of any books past the first trilogy - and when the adaptation was announced, I stopped to really think about how it could be portrayed on screen. Obviously, you can't portray the trilogy as-is on television; you have to change or add *something*, because large sections of it are just people talking in blank rooms. But I think it could be done.

And the message I got from the book was that civilization rests on a thin sheet of glass, so fragile it could be broken with a touch, and without men of absolute devotion willing to sacrifice not just their deaths but their lives so that their great-grandchildren can live, civilization will fall and the lamps will all go out.

Picture this: in the first few chapters of the books, Seldon teaches Gaal Dornick the axioms of psychohistory in one afternoon, in a conversation held in a single room. In a TV show, these axioms could take up half the season. They meet on Trantor, as before, but Gaal Dornick is as eager for immediate action as she is smart, wanting to use her math skills ('her', since in this hypothetical we're under AppleTV's casting constraints) to enact immediate change, to start doing things *now* to help people. She insists "People are suffering in incomprehensible numbers, and we have to help them!" For Hari's response, we bring in a line from the book:

"You say that without thinking. What of psychohistory?"

"I hadn't thought of applying it to the problem."

"Before you are done with me, young lady, you will learn to apply pyschohistory to *all* problems as a matter of course."

And so we kick off perhaps episode 2 travelling a few thousand lightyears away for a case study in psychohistory. Here's a town in a region on a planet in that's getting screwed over by a nearby city. Here, carved quickly into the ice or the sand or the stump of a super-redwood tree, are the parameters for the incentive structure governing the relationship between town and city. You want to correct injustice? Start there.

Oh? After an episode of solid effort, you've succeeded? The nice city council members responded to your clever negotiation tactics and game-theoretic explanations of the benefits of cooperation rather than exploitation? Excellent! Pity you didn't factor in the provincial government, though. See, they've been under pressure from the planetary governor to clamp down, after that minor rebellion on the other side of the planet five years ago that never made galactic news and that you've never heard of. Any city that starts to get too friendly with its suburbs starts to make the provincial lords awful nervous about a repeat, and they're extremely suspicious when you bring in words like "Nash equilibrium", so they'll be appointing their own, more cooperative city council members, thanks.

You seriously thought you could get in touch with the planetary governor? Why would he care? He only knows Meyerhoff City as a place on the map and a minor source of uranium (though it's been running a bit slow lately; hard to get good mining engineers these days), and he's never even *heard* of the little town of Gellhorn. This is a tiny planet, yes. Only a billion and a half people on it. Scarcely inhabited, compared to a galaxy. But that's still a mighty big number. If a percent of a percent of a percent of its citizens want to talk to the governor for five minutes, you have a thousand people in line ahead of you. Care to wait? Think it'll help?

Third Axiom of Psychohistory: Human conglomerates possess resistance to deviations from historical trajectories. The greater the deviation, the greater the required force and time.

Thus endeth the lesson.

As the season progresses, we see Gaal start to apply psychohistory more and more to each new planet she and Hari Seldon travel to, until finally they're both arrested and brought back to Trantor for the trial. Naturally, from force of habit, she applies the same math to Trantor itself, thus getting the inevitable reveal that the Galactic Empire is dying.

The book doesn't explicitly explain why Hari had to recruit Gaal from halfway across the galaxy, given that there are billions or trillions (Asimov's inconsistent) of people on Trantor, but I will. There are people too numerous to count consistently, but so few of them are first-rate mathematicians, and so few of the first-rate mathematicians are people who *care* about what will happen beyond their lifetime or at most their children's, that a gigantic net nevertheless catches very few fish.

And why go to all the trouble of taking her across the galaxy? For the same underlying reason that shartening the dark age is so difficult: inertia. They could sit in a room all day, and Gaal could learn the math of it all, but unless you go out there and actually try drawing it out in the sand with real people and real consequences, it doesn't stick. You need a LOT of force to effect a large change, and thus you *have* to take the time with every new recruit, because no level of dedication short of "absolute devotion" is going to be enough.

I know that's not what Asimov *wrote*. But reading the books as a teenager, that's approximately what I read.

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